The distance from Key West to Belize is too long to do it in one night, so we spent a day at sea and traveled with a sedate speed of 16 knots towards our destination. The weather was good, although there was some confused weather near Panama that might give rise to a tropical cyclone if it keeps developing. At the moment it is too un-structured to say whether it will or not. At this moment I am not too concerned and it should not affect the cruise. It is a matter of keeping an eye on its development if any. My main concern at the moment is to figure out the optimum speed, to get there on as few engines as possible, with using as little fuel as possible.

Although the fuel prices are coming down it is still an issue worth a lot of attention. Carnival Corporation has already announced that the fuel charges are being removed for 2010 bookings and more to follow if the price of a barrel of oil goes to $ 70,– but the fuel cost still makes up a major part of the cost price and therefore it has my utmost attention. Thus a favorable current can help greatly, and an opposing current can cost us dearly.

The issue is that the currents between Key West and Belize are not the same all the way to Belize. As a matter of fact they are constantly changing and not always easily to forecast. When leaving Key West, we first had the current with us for about an hour. This is the counter current that flows opposite the Gulf Stream under the Florida Keys. It is also influenced by the wind and as it had been blowing considerably (see Grand Turk and Half Moon Cay blog) it was still running at over a knot. That gave the Veendam speed free of charge. Then we came under the influence of the Gulf Stream, which flows to the East and thus basically against us. However as we were crossing it under a SW course, it was not fully against us as it hit the ship under an angle instead of full on which would have been the case with a direct Westerly course. The Veendam was more pushed sideways than being opposed.

Coming near Cuba we lost the influence of the Gulf Stream and then we got a bit of current with us, wind driven and helped by a counter flow from the Gulf Stream. It can also happen that the current can be against us, caused by a water flow curling around the west point of Cuba coming from the North West Caribbean. The counter flow won this time and we had some with us.

Once we had passed Cabo San Antonio and entered the Yucatan channel, we got more current against us. This is the outflow from the NW Caribbean and from the Gulf Stream that flows North past Cozumel. The Caribbean outflow was weak and thus it did not bother us very much and the Gulf Stream was nicely to the West. For most of the afternoon and evening we had about a knot against us with very little variation.

All in all, there was less current against us than I had expected, so by the evening I could adjust the engine settings and that meant that for this stretch we will operate below the estimated budget. Something which always gives a good feeling. There are current flow charts available for the mariner to use. Paper charts which give the average current strength and direction for each month of the year but there are also maps and charts on the internet which are updated on a regular basis. The one shown here comes from a military site and is quite close to reality. The information for the chart is compiled from computer models that create a basic current pattern and is augmented with real time observations to verify that the computer model is realistic.

(http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/IASNFS_WWW/today/NFC/00_gomt.gif)

I expect to arrive at Belize pilot station at 5 am. tomorrow morning with the Carnival Glory sailing in 20 minutes behind me. Weather looks good, with a chance of thunderstorms, but if they happen, it will be later in the day.